Alpha Dune RNG Performance

Proven Fairness at Scale

Alpha Dune's RNG system isn't just theoretically fair—it's mathematically proven across millions of real-world interactions. Our open-source, on-chain implementation has been tested with over 14 million mystery box opens, demonstrating precision that exceeds industry standards.

This page presents the empirical evidence of our RNG's performance, showing how stated odds align with actual outcomes at scale.

Why Performance Testing Matters

In an industry where "provably fair" has often meant "trust us," we've taken a different approach: publish the results and let the data speak.

Our RNG combines:

• Open-source code – Every line is available for public review

• On-chain settlement – All results are permanently recorded and auditable

• Cryptographic security – Randomness derived from blockchain hashes (server seed) and unique player keys (user seed)

This dual-seed approach ensures outcomes are both unpredictable and individually verifiable by anyone.

Test Methodology

We analyzed 14,020,160 lootbox opens across multiple campaigns on Alpha Dune Testnet:

Test Conditions:

• Identical setup to production environment on Loot Dynasty

• Multiple rarity structures (5-14 items per pack)

• Wide probability ranges (0.05% to 60%)

• Continuous operation without resets

Audit Trail:

• View the complete analysis and methodology

• RNG Smart Contract on Testnet

Pack #1: Gold Bar Collector Results

Sample Size: 6,824,160 opens

What we can see in the above image:

• Item Name - the name of each item from this pack

• Item ID - The ID associated with each item

• Expected Odds - The Stated Odds from Loot Dynasty for each item

• Opens - The total opens that we had for each item during the tests

• True Odds - The actual odds that resulted from the opens

• Deviation - The percentage difference between the Expected Odds and the True Odds

We have also sampled data points at different open ranges to check for patterns during the tests.

The above image shows opens that are between 1,000,001 and 2,000,000 range.

The above image shows opens that are between 3,000,001 and 4,000,000 range.

The above image shows opens that are between 5,000,001 and 6,000,000 range. This range does not have a complete 1,000,000 opens sample size because of the switch to the second pack test. Maximum Deviation: 0.456%

What This Means in Practice

For every 10,000 opens, the most common item appeared within ±46 occurrences of the expected value—a variance that is:

• Statistically normal for true randomness

• Effectively undetectable in gameplay

• Well within commercial-grade tolerance

Sampled Ranges

Performance remained consistent across different sample windows:

Opens 1M-2M: Maximum deviation 0.412% Opens 3M-4M: Maximum deviation 0.389% Opens 5M-6M: Maximum deviation 0.421%

No systematic bias was detected—deviations were randomly distributed around expected values, confirming the absence of hidden house advantage.

Pack #2: A Weekend In Paris Results

Sample Size: 7,196,000 opens

What we can see in the above image:

• Item Name - the name of each item from this pack

• Item ID - The ID associated with each item

• Expected Odds - The Stated Odds from Loot Dynasty for each item

• Opens - The total opens that we had for each item during the tests

• True Odds - The actual odds that resulted from the opens

• Deviation - The percentage difference between the Expected Odds and the True Odds

We have also sampled data points at different open ranges to check for patterns during the tests.

In the above image we have sampled opens that are between 8,000,001 and 9,000,000 range.

In the above image we have sampled opens that are between 10,000,001 and 11,000,000 range.

In the above image we have sampled opens that are between 12,000,001 and 13,000,000 range.

Maximum Deviation: 0.1901% Average Absolute Deviation: 0.037%

Increased Complexity, Maintained Precision

Pack #2 tested the RNG under more demanding conditions:

• 14 unique items (vs. typical 5-9 item systems)

• Wider probability range (0.05% to 23.35%)

• More complex distribution curve

Despite this complexity, maximum deviation remained under 0.2%—demonstrating that precision scales with product sophistication.

Sampled Ranges

Opens 8M-9M: Maximum deviation 0.178% Opens 10M-11M: Maximum deviation 0.165% Opens 12M-13M: Maximum deviation 0.182%

Understanding Natural Variance

The minor deviations observed are not flaws—they're evidence of true randomness.

Expected Binomial Distribution Behavior

• Ultra-rare items (0.05-0.2%): Show slightly higher relative variance due to smaller absolute numbers, but deviations remain negligible

• Common items (20-60%): Exhibit remarkable consistency with deviations typically under 0.5%

• Overall pattern: Deviations are randomly distributed around expected values with no systematic bias

What "Zero Net Deviation" Means

Across both packs, the average deviation across all items was statistically zero:

• Individual items may deviate slightly above or below expected odds

• These deviations cancel out across the full item set

• No hidden house advantage—the system delivers exactly what's advertised over time

Performance Benchmarks

Our results establish a new standard for RNG precision in blockchain gaming:

Key Takeaway: Alpha Dune RNG operates at 5-10x tighter precision than typical industry tolerance levels.

Economic Fairness Guarantee

The results demonstrate three critical properties:

1. Mathematical Precision

Maximum deviations under 0.5% represent commercial-grade accuracy unmatched in the industry.

2. Scalable Consistency

Performance remains exceptional across:

• Different product designs

• Varying complexity levels (5-14 items)

• Extended operational periods (10+ days continuous)

3. Long-Term Value Preservation

Near-perfect deviation cancellation ensures:

• Advertised odds translate directly to delivered value

• No systematic advantage to house or player

• Economic models remain balanced over millions of interactions

Transparency and Auditability

Unlike traditional gaming systems where RNG is a "black box," Alpha Dune provides:

✅ Real-time verification – Every result is immediately auditable on-chain ✅ Complete data access – Full methodology and raw data available for independent analysis ✅ Open-source implementation – Smart contract code is publicly reviewable ✅ No trust required – Cryptographic proof replaces blind faith

Anyone can verify our claims by:

1. Reviewing the smart contract on testnet

2. Analyzing the complete dataset in our public spreadsheet

3. Running their own statistical analysis on historical opens

The Path Forward

This verification establishes what's possible when fairness is built into the protocol rather than promised by operators.

As blockchain gaming matures, we believe mathematical proof should become the standard, and verifiable real-time data should supersede blind trust.

Alpha Dune's RNG demonstrates that this standard is not only achievable but operationally viable at scale—enabling a new generation of applications where fairness isn't claimed, it's proven.